Sunday, August 10, 2014 Part II: Election Day Commentary

Sunday, August 10, 2014 Part II: Election Day Commentary

Watching election results
on our iPhone

I spent the evening at Müge's house - a lovely dinner as a cool breeze blew in from the Bosphorus: salmon, rice, beans, salad. Müge and Nükte's parents joined us, as well as Vincent and the girls. The election results were the main subject of the evening. How many polling stations were reporting? How can poll watchers help avoid AKParty cheating at the polls? How many people voted and which districts voted for which candidate? (To read my initial commentary about the candidates, read my previous blog post here).

Already by 6:00 pm there were 30% of the polls reporting and Erdogan was clearly ahead. Then, once darkness had settled and lights twinkled on the European side, I saw fireworks over the water, and heard honking on the streets. The results were in - Erdogan had won.

What does this mean for Turkey? Erdogan has made no secret of his plan to consolidate power under the presidency, and weaken the parliamentary system that has been in place since Mustafa Kemal Atatürk established the Turkish Republic in the 1920's. Nor has he avoided strong religious imagery and symbolism in his campaign videos, despite Turkey's historical, but wavering, secular identity.

Erdogan with Obama

The Turkish Parliamentary system was designed to work as a balance between various arms of the government: Parliament, or the Grand National Assembly as it is called, is charged with the legislative power, executive power falls to the Council of Ministers (at this time it is 25 different heads of various ministries, and the Prime Minister is but one of the 25) and the judiciary stands separately. The Prime Minister in Turkey has had greater power than the President, who has been simply a figurehead much as the Queen is in England. Was it current Turkish President Abdullah Gül that you saw alongside President Obama on the White House lawn for a press conference? No, it was Prime Minister Erdogan.

But unable to run again for Prime Minister (his AKParty has been in power for three terms in parliament) Erdogan has selected the presidency as his next platform, and he intends to exercise his full presidential powers, unlike past presidents that have remained ceremonial.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Minister_of_Turkey

But Erdogan has vowed to not stop there. He plans to change Turkey's constitution to establish a full executive presidency. In the U.S. an executive presidency is designed to be balanced by a powerful legislature, the judiciary and a strong tradition of freedom of speech. In Turkey journalists remain censored as they attempt to keep an eye on Erdogan, and his AKParty continues to dominate the Parliament. A stronger presidency with Erdogan in control, and a reduction of influence by the Council of Ministers, may spell further trouble for civil rights.

Even Erdogan's critics cannot deny that there have been some positive changes during his term as prime minister. While his display of religious fervor has been controversial, he also has brought inflation under control, and has delivered a strong message on the international stage which has further strengthened Turkey's role as a regional leader.

And why should U.S.ers care about who leads the Turkish government? Turkey has been a bulwark against religious extremism, a canary in the modern Islamic world coal mine that has been an important ally to the U.S. when things have heated up in the region. Turkey is a member of NATO and a key leader in engaging other Middle Eastern states in dialogue, as well as a member of the G-20, recognizing its role as a major economy in the world. As the physical link between Asia and Europe, Turkey has been an important example of how Islam can co-exist with, but not interfere with, matters of governance.

So, in the end, Erdogan won with 51.8 percent of the vote, merely 1.8% more than he needed to win outright in the first round. İhsanoğlu received 38.5 percent and Demirtaş obtained 9.7 percent with 96.5 percent of the ballot boxes counted as of 2 hours ago. Turnout was lower than expected at 74.4 percent, which means that 5 million eligible voters stayed away from the polls, likely a good number of them secularists disenchanted by the choices or the potency of their vote. It's 12:30 a.m. Monday now, and the cars are still honking along the Bosphorus.

According to CNNTürk, Erdogan, on his way to Ankara to deliver his victory speech, made a stop at the Eyüp Sultan Mosque in Istanbul, a pilgrimage site for Muslims, where he "symbolically performed a prayer of gratitude for his election victory." The Eyüp Sultan mosque was historically the first stop for Ottoman sultans, as well as caliphs, after they ascended to the throne. Multiple generations of Turks have now had the benefit of Turkey's secular outlook and only time will tell whether those that have benefited from secularism will value it enough to protect it.

An Erdogan political commercial on youtube

Friday, August 1: Negotiating the Istanbul Metro System

Friday, August 1: Negotiating the Istanbul Metro System

First, an update:

Yesterday I moved from Burgaz Island to Küzgüncük, my friends' home on the Asian side of Istanbul. After a week of lazing under the sun and swimming in the sea, it seemed to be time that I do some sightseeing. I've stayed in Küzgüncük once before, when I brought David, Aisha and Toshio to Istanbul in 2007, so the community and Nükte's house are familiar to me, and the neighbors in the area know me as well. It is also a short 10 minute bus ride from Beylerbeyi, where Müge lives. All in all, I feel very at home here.

I rose this morning with the plan to head to Taksim, the famous square which was the location of the May 2013 demonstration that I wrote about in a previous blog post. There are multiple ways I could have gotten there (land, sea, underground metro) but since the Istanbul metro system is new to me (recently built since my last visit), I decided to try that.

I boarded the metro train in Üsküdar, just a short bus ride from Küzgüncük. I found the station clean and modern, with lots of beautiful artwork and even a large flat screen TV to watch commercials while I waited for the train. My plan was to take the train just one stop across the Bosphorus, equivalent to traveling between West Oakland and Embarcadero on BART. So my first stop would be Sirkeci. Here's the map they displayed at the station:

That's when the confusion began. I wanted to transfer at Sirkeci to the Kabataş line so I could disembark at Taksim. How hard could that be? I've managed many difficult metro systems before (NY? Paris?) but I must say the Istanbul system had me stumped.
I found myself on the street at Sirkeci, unable to find the transfer point, so I took the above-ground tramway that I was more familiar with and found my destination that way.

Fast forward to the afternoon when I was ready to head back, I boarded the underground metro at Taksim with the intention of heading south to get as close to Eminönü as I could, but found myself disembarking at a station the doesn't even show up on this map! Can you find the Vezneciler station on the green line heading to Yenikapi? Neither can I.

I did some research on my laptop when I got home and I found no fewer than 18 different Istanbul metro maps online. EIGHTEEN. To be fair, I can see now that the Istanbul metro system is work in progress, and lines are being added all the time. Of course some of these maps were previous versions that show the limited availability of lines as they were being constructed. BUT, you'll also notice that the shapes of the maps change from version to version, and the line colors change as well. Here is a selection of my favorites:

 

This one does show the stop I got off at in Vezneciler station

Of all the Istanbul metro maps I found online, only 3 had the station that I got off at in Vezniciler. The map posted at the Üsküdar metro station was not one of them. 

Okay, on to what I actually DID today.

Today I toured Istiklal Street in Beyoglu, which is a very nice boulevard with lots of fun stores and restaurants. It is a popular tourist destination so I did see a lot of foreigners. And yes, I did buy some silly Istanbul Tchotchkes.

Sulemaniye Mosque

I also saw the breathtaking Suleymaniye Mosque. Wow. Completed in 1557 by Sinan the Architect for Süleyman the Great, it has been restored to its original state, with beautiful geometric shapes in the interior domes and the same dramatic lighting one finds in all of Istanbul's mosques.

That's me. I had to be covered in the mosque

After visiting the mosque, I made my way North to Eminönü to catch the ferry back to Üsküdar (the metro felt a bit risky at this point), and a small alleyway with some shops caught my eye. What followed was a 90 minute walk through a market area that seemed to cover a square mile, with tiny alleys that go off in different directions with any household item you can imagine for sale. 

Interested in some counterfeit dollars?

This store was entirely decorative boxes and ribbons

Need a combination safe, or a colander? How about some party favors for a children's party? Or some Turkish delight? I was lost, I thought, but emerged later not far from where I started. Go figure.

Underground passageway at Eminönü

At last, it was time to catch the ferryboat and head back to Küzgüncük, but I had one last challenge to face. Those of you who have visited Istanbul before will know that Eminönü is an extremely busy area, packed with taxis and pedestrians. The city smartly built underground passageways to get from one side of the street to another, and industrious shopkeepers opened up stores along the tunnels to entice people as they walked by. There are even public restrooms in the tunnels. I expected this. What I did not expect were the crowds. We were shoulder to shoulder, packed in, as we moved as one through the hot and sweaty space. It reached 89 degrees today at it's hottest. In the tunnels it felt more like 100. Ugh. Nükte had warned me that the crowds had gotten worse since my last visit. I finally saw it for myself.

Back at home, I was so glad to wash off the sweat from this day. It was an authentic Istanbul experience from beginning to end. :-)

Presidential Elections: Commentary

Presidential Elections: Commentary

In Beylerbeyi 

On August 10, 2014, for the first time in modern Turkey’s history, the president will be elected by the public instead of by parliament. Citizens will visit their local polling station to unfold their ballots and choose their 12th president. The three-term Prime Minister Recep Teyyip Erdoğan, of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), is considered the candidate to beat. I observed political banners of Erdoğan all over Istanbul with more frequency than I did his competitors, and with the resources of the State behind him he is surely able to be familiar to Turks residing in other countries, numbering 2.8 million according to Today’s Zaman newspaper, now able to vote in Turkish elections for the first time. Erdoğan's image as a “street fighter” for challenging Western countries has made him popular among the lesser-educated Turkish citizens abroad.

In Bebek

But Erdoğan's image remains shaky in urban Istanbul. Low voter turnout would be to Erdoğan's advantage, my friends shared. The educated classes are disenchanted with him since the government’s handling of the Gezi Park protests which took place in May of 2013. From what started as a modest sit-in in opposition to an urban development plan in Istanbul’s Taksim Square, the violent eviction of protestors inspired as many as 3.5 million of Turkey’s 80 million people to take part in what became a widely publicized demonstration. Shortly thereafter, Turkey joined China, in blocking Twitter.

“Twitter, schmitter,” Erdoğan was reported on the CBC News site to have said in an angry speech to supporters in the northwest town of Bursa. He vowed to “root out” the social media platform. “I don’t care what the international community says. Everyone will witness the power of the Turkish Republic.” (www.cvc.ca, “Turkey tackles Twitter, comes out bruised” By Sasa Petricic, March 24, 2014). 

This home belongs to a member of Erdogan's family in Beylerbeyi

Despite Erdogan’s efforts, the penetration rate of Twitter among Turkish internet users is about 30 percent. The Twitter block was originally motivated by politics, after taped conversations were leaked during a corruption investigation, in which Erdoğan was allegedly heard discussing with his son how to get rid of millions of euros. I saw this house (see right) which was raised recently near Beylerbeyi, allegedly built for Erdoğan’s brother-in-law.  Older homes around it must abide by the many strict planning rules imposed on homes near the shores of the Bosphorus, where residents cannot even change the size of a window. This modern concrete building stands out like a sore thumb.

My friends Nükte and Vincent were drawn to the Gezi unrest, as many secular Turks were, as it inspired hope that Turks had found their pulpit for civil rights and democracy. Compared to the Occupy movement, the Gezi Park protests galvanized both left and right-leaning Istanbuli Turks. Nükte relayed to me an encounter she had with a local policeman on the ferry boat on their way back from Taksim Square, her face still burning from tear gas. He expressed his own bewilderment on being at the other side of the protest, and described the round the clock shifts he worked alongside a police force that was bussed in from Anatolia to face protestors. 

I asked about the baby. No one knows who it is.

Turkey’s experience with a multi-party system is short and riddled with problems. The parliament is largely dominated by the conservative party, with two or three strong parties able to exert some influence, but as many as 30 others that are not electorally successful, resulting in a polarized domestic political environment. The leftist parties, most notable of which is the Republican People's Party or Kemalist Party (CHP) draw much of their support from big cities and coastal regions. Erdogan’s main competitor, Ekmeleddin İhsanoğlu, was hand-picked by the Kemalist and Nationalist Movement (MHP) parties without securing the support of their bases. As a newcomer, İhsanoğlu is relatively unfamiliar to the greater Anatolia, and has cast himself as an independent, vowing to unite the secularists and the Islamists. but many secularists remain skeptical and view the secularism of Kemalist Turkey as at its last breath. Whether a vision of secularist Turkey can be kept alive with Erdoğan at the helm, remains in question.

The third candidate, Selahattin Demirtaş, is a Socialist and represents the People’s Democratic Party (HDP). He is considered to have no chance at all of winning the election. Demirtaş was identified as his party’s candidate late and has very little visibility in the greater city of Istanbul, from what I observed. 

Voting was at one time mandatory in Kemal Ataturk’s Turkey, with turnout rates still hovering close to 80%. (http://www.idea.int/vt/countryview.cfm?CountryCode=TR). Many view Erdoğan's election as a sure thing, and won’t bother to vote. And yet, with the memory of Gezi still fresh, perhaps they will speak.

Source: wsj.com, July 10, 2014

Erdoğan sent this spam propaganda text Sunday wishing customers of this particular phone service a 

Happy Bayram. Others got similar messages from the opposition candidate İhsanoğlu.

Taksim Square, May 2013