Sunday, August 10, 2014 Part II: Election Day Commentary

Sunday, August 10, 2014 Part II: Election Day Commentary

Watching election results
on our iPhone

I spent the evening at Müge's house - a lovely dinner as a cool breeze blew in from the Bosphorus: salmon, rice, beans, salad. Müge and Nükte's parents joined us, as well as Vincent and the girls. The election results were the main subject of the evening. How many polling stations were reporting? How can poll watchers help avoid AKParty cheating at the polls? How many people voted and which districts voted for which candidate? (To read my initial commentary about the candidates, read my previous blog post here).

Already by 6:00 pm there were 30% of the polls reporting and Erdogan was clearly ahead. Then, once darkness had settled and lights twinkled on the European side, I saw fireworks over the water, and heard honking on the streets. The results were in - Erdogan had won.

What does this mean for Turkey? Erdogan has made no secret of his plan to consolidate power under the presidency, and weaken the parliamentary system that has been in place since Mustafa Kemal Atatürk established the Turkish Republic in the 1920's. Nor has he avoided strong religious imagery and symbolism in his campaign videos, despite Turkey's historical, but wavering, secular identity.

Erdogan with Obama

The Turkish Parliamentary system was designed to work as a balance between various arms of the government: Parliament, or the Grand National Assembly as it is called, is charged with the legislative power, executive power falls to the Council of Ministers (at this time it is 25 different heads of various ministries, and the Prime Minister is but one of the 25) and the judiciary stands separately. The Prime Minister in Turkey has had greater power than the President, who has been simply a figurehead much as the Queen is in England. Was it current Turkish President Abdullah Gül that you saw alongside President Obama on the White House lawn for a press conference? No, it was Prime Minister Erdogan.

But unable to run again for Prime Minister (his AKParty has been in power for three terms in parliament) Erdogan has selected the presidency as his next platform, and he intends to exercise his full presidential powers, unlike past presidents that have remained ceremonial.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Minister_of_Turkey

But Erdogan has vowed to not stop there. He plans to change Turkey's constitution to establish a full executive presidency. In the U.S. an executive presidency is designed to be balanced by a powerful legislature, the judiciary and a strong tradition of freedom of speech. In Turkey journalists remain censored as they attempt to keep an eye on Erdogan, and his AKParty continues to dominate the Parliament. A stronger presidency with Erdogan in control, and a reduction of influence by the Council of Ministers, may spell further trouble for civil rights.

Even Erdogan's critics cannot deny that there have been some positive changes during his term as prime minister. While his display of religious fervor has been controversial, he also has brought inflation under control, and has delivered a strong message on the international stage which has further strengthened Turkey's role as a regional leader.

And why should U.S.ers care about who leads the Turkish government? Turkey has been a bulwark against religious extremism, a canary in the modern Islamic world coal mine that has been an important ally to the U.S. when things have heated up in the region. Turkey is a member of NATO and a key leader in engaging other Middle Eastern states in dialogue, as well as a member of the G-20, recognizing its role as a major economy in the world. As the physical link between Asia and Europe, Turkey has been an important example of how Islam can co-exist with, but not interfere with, matters of governance.

So, in the end, Erdogan won with 51.8 percent of the vote, merely 1.8% more than he needed to win outright in the first round. İhsanoğlu received 38.5 percent and Demirtaş obtained 9.7 percent with 96.5 percent of the ballot boxes counted as of 2 hours ago. Turnout was lower than expected at 74.4 percent, which means that 5 million eligible voters stayed away from the polls, likely a good number of them secularists disenchanted by the choices or the potency of their vote. It's 12:30 a.m. Monday now, and the cars are still honking along the Bosphorus.

According to CNNTürk, Erdogan, on his way to Ankara to deliver his victory speech, made a stop at the Eyüp Sultan Mosque in Istanbul, a pilgrimage site for Muslims, where he "symbolically performed a prayer of gratitude for his election victory." The Eyüp Sultan mosque was historically the first stop for Ottoman sultans, as well as caliphs, after they ascended to the throne. Multiple generations of Turks have now had the benefit of Turkey's secular outlook and only time will tell whether those that have benefited from secularism will value it enough to protect it.

An Erdogan political commercial on youtube